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JUDAISM IN THE YEAR 2040

 
This essay, by Robin Margolis, grew out of her replies to a discussion on several Jewish continuity and outreach websites and listserves in 2009 over whether rabbis and cantors should be allowed to intermarry.
 
None of the predictions below are set in stone. But they represent a projection of what Judaism may look like in the year 2040, based on current Jewish communal behaviors and population statistics in the year 2009.
 
We will continue to monitor trends in Jewish communal behaviors and population statistics, and will alter the essay to reflect any major changes.
 
Introduction
 
You have asked me: should rabbis and cantors be allowed to intermarry? But is that the right question about the future of Judaism?

Hop onto my time machine, based on years of scrutinizing intermarriage statistics. Welcome to Temple Beth Erev Rav (Temple House of Mixed Rabble), in Anywhere America in the year 2040.
 
Some of what you will read is good news for Judaism, and some of it is bad news.
 
American Jewish Leaders In The Year 2040

Because 48% of all Jewish-identified college students in the year 2009 were children of intermarriage -- Temple Beth Erev Rav in the year 2040 is composed mostly of adult children and grandchildren of intermarrriage and interfaith couples.

The senior rabbi is an elderly Gen Xer Jew, married to a middle-aged Millenial Jew. The associate rabbi -- a member of the post-Millenial generation -- is an adult child of intermarriage and intermarried. She and her Catholic husband are raising the kids as Jews. They do celebrate Christmas at her Catholic mother-in-law's home.
 
The associate rabbi's children accept this philosophically as "Grandma's faith" and eagerly anticipate two sets of presents at Hanukkah and Christmas.

The cantor is the grandchild of an intermarriage, and half-African-American. The president of the shul is a Chinese Jew By Choice.

The congregation is very comfortable with the shul's leadership -- after all, it reflects them.
 
What Are The Year 2040 American Jews Like?

The congregants are not much interested in Talmud and midrash. They know almost no Yiddish or Ladino at all. The Holocaust and the Jewish immigration to America and the founding of Israel are now a century away. 
 
The congregants have the same emotional relationship to those events that the Jews of 2009 have to World War I -- it's ancient history!

They know traditional Jewish foods only from cookbooks. Their Hebrew skills are poor. But they are tenacious -- they read -- in Hebrew-English texts with transliterations and translations -- the Bible (the Tanach), study the siddur, pray and donate to the shul.
 
They are interested in God and Kabbalah and meditation and Hasidic mystical texts. They are interested in Jewish history and literature and sacred music.

I think the Society for Humanistic Judaism will also be doing very well. Not all 2040 Jews will be theistic. Some will be atheists, agnostics and cultural Jews.
 
Now, there are many adult children and other descendants of intermarriage in Temple Beth Erev Rav's area who are not members of any Jewish organizations, and live in other faiths and cultures.  Some of them were simply drawn to their other "half" and are happy members of other faiths and cultures.
 
For others, their first choice would have been Judaism, but Jewish institutions made little active effort to welcome half-Jewish people in 2009 -- and that had an impact in 2040.
 
Why Has The American Jewish Population Count Fallen So Far In The Year 2040?
 
Temple Beth Erev Rav's membership is much smaller than it could have been, given the large number of adult children and other descendants of intermarriage living in its geographic area.
 
This is true of most surviving Jewish organizations in the year 2040. The Jewish population count in North American has dropped dramatically from 2009.
 
This is because, in the year 2009, most Jewish establishment organizations did not have policies in place actively outreaching and welcoming adult children and other descendants of intermarriage.  
 
Some Jewish organizations would cordially welcome half-Jewish people who arrived on their doorsteps, but they would not actively seek them out in the ways that they sought out interfaith couples and Jews By Choice (converts).
 
Some Jewish organizations in 2009 continued to snub half-Jewish people.
 
So in many instances, half-Jewish people had to be very persistent to find a welcoming Jewish organization and become a member.
 
Now, once a Jewish population study appeared in 2022, announcing that adult children of intermarriage had become the majority of college age American Jews  -- and would be the majority of American Jews in the year 2040 --
 
most Jewish organizations in Temple Beth Erev Rav's geographic area, including the Temple itself, began actively seeking out and welcoming adult children and other descendants of intermarriage.
 
But starting active welcoming policies for half-Jewish people in the year 2022 did not remedy the losses of some half-Jewish people who quit Temple Beth Erev Rav and nearby Jewish institutions -- or never joined them -- prior to 2022.
 
Where Are Jews With Two Jewish Parents in 2040?

The remaining Jews with two Jewish parents in the shul are mostly over the age of 40. They are Jews born between 1946 - 2000. The generation following the Millenials -- the Jewish babies born after 2000 -- will likely be majority children of intermarriage.

Some of the Jews with two Jewish parents are quite comfortable with Temple Beth Erev Rav. They are intermarried.

Other Jews with two Jewish parents are married to similar Jews, but have adapted to Temple Beth Erev Rav because they grew up with many friends who were half-Jewish and with friends from other cultures.

But some Jews with two Jewish parents feel dislocated and isolated in the new multicultural, multiracial Judaism of Temple Beth Erev Rav.

Some Jews with two Jewish parents have left Temple Beth Erev Rav for Orthodoxy, simply to have more Jews around them who have two Jewish parents and a shared frame of cultural reference.

The "Jewish 2.0 continuity" efforts of the year 2009 -- "social entrepreneur" efforts -- all focused almost entirely on young Jews with two Jewish parents -- disappeared long ago.

Sadly, these innovative and interesting projects disappeared because their heavy focus on self-referential inmarried Jewish topics and events -- bagel jokes, Israel trips, discussions on intermarriage, arguments over Yiddish proverbs -- did not resonate with the adult children and other descendants of intermarriage. 

After all, why would half-Jewish people be interested in discussions on why Jews should not intermarry? Jokes about overbearing Jewish mothers (when many half-Jewish people have Jewish fathers)? Nostalgic pieces on Jewish day schools and camps that few half-Jewish people ever attended?

What Jewish Institutions Exist In 2040?

In the year 2040, the majority of mainstream Jewish secular institutions, including the federations, have collapsed or gone ultra-Orthodox. The adult children of intermarriage and other descendants of intermarriage, so long snubbed and ignored by them, simply won't join them and support them.

In the year 2040, most Orthodox, with the exception of the smaller Modern Orthodox movement, have finally cut themselves off from the liberal Jews of America, just as they were gradually doing from the 1980s onward by withdrawing from joint rabbinic boards with non-Orthodox rabbis, etc. They do not recognize the congregants of Temple Erev Rav as "real" Jews. They are right, according to halachah (Orthodox law).

What Happened To Israel In The Year 2040?

There will likely be no Israeli flag in Temple Erev Rav and few mentions of it in the shul. Why?

In the year 2009, 25% of all Israeli elementary school children were Haredi/Hasidim. Among their stated goals of some Israeli Knesset (Parliament) Likud and ultra-Orthodox political parties -- in the year 2009 -- is to remove some members of interfaith families from the Law of Return. They have started with advocating the removal of patrilineal grandchildren of intermarriage from the Law of Return.

The Haredi/Hasidim of Israel continued to have more children than other Israelis, subsidized by the Israeli government child payments.  The other fast-growing group was the Israeli Arabs.

In the year 2040, the Haredi/Hasidim are poised to take over the Israeli government -- they are at least one-third to one-half of Israel's population. Their election promise, announced as far back as 2009 -- yes, they do state this in Israeli newspapers -- is to create a sort of "Halachic Republic of Israel" -- kind of like the Islamic Republic of Iran.

By the year 2040, their election promises have ramped up to promising to exclude all members of interfaith families from the Law of Return, except those who have documentary proof of a Jewish mother or maternal Jewish grandmother.

The other large Israeli population group in 2040 -- the Israeli Arabs -- are not disposed to allow a "Halachic Republic of Israel," so rumors of an impending civil war are widespread. It is said that the Palestinian State will help the Israeli Arabs if they decide to revolt.

The groups that used to maintain a political balance in Israel -- the chiloni (secular Israeli Jews), the half-Jewish Russian Israelis, and similar groups -- are outnumbered by the Haredim/Hasidim and the Israeli Arabs because they did not have as many children as those two groups.

The chiloni, the half-Jewish Russian Israelis and other "balance" groups have started leaving Israel in the year 2040.

So Temple Beth Erev Rav has little or no contact with Israel, other than graciously welcoming Israelis who have left Israel. How could America's non-Orthodox, mixed descent Jews and its Modern Orthodox support "The Halachic Republic of Israel"?

What Kind Of Rabbis & Cantors Are Needed In 2040?

According to current population statistics and trends in Jewish communal behaviors -- that is what may be the future of Judaism in the year 2040.

In that era, some intermarried rabbis and cantors and layleaders and secular leaders will be desperately needed as part of new Jewish communal norms -- to help outreach interfaith families and interact with Jewish multicultural, multiracial congregations and cultural organizations.

In the last analysis, it is not important who the rabbi is married to or what the cantor's ancestry is or whether a cultural Judaism organization's leader has intermarried children.

It is important that there are still shuls (synagogues) and secular/cultural Jewish organizations open in America in the year 2040.

It is important that there are rabbis, cantors, lay leaders and Jewish educators  in the year 2040 of all types of parentages and marriages, who are teaching varieties of the Torah and Jewish secular culture.

It is important that there are Jewish settings in the year 2040 that respect democracy and focus on making good Jews, without a negative focus on those Jews' ancestry or who they are married to.